Yanhua Sayed, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Chemical Engineering, said he didn’t think China’s carbon emissions would reach their planned targets.
“The current emissions targets for China’s greenhouse gas emissions of 505.8-610.3 million tons per year by 2022 will exceed the climate targets,” he said.
Wu, an expert on carbon sequestration and energy systems, said China hasn’t shown much interest in reducing carbon emissions and doesn’t see any practical way to do so.
“By 2030, the average emissions for China is already at 1,200-1,400 ppm [parts per million]. The country is not capable of meeting the emission emission targets it has set,” he said.
The carbon intensity target was put in place during President Xi Jinping’s first term as China’s president, but it was only recently added to the country’s comprehensive five-year plan on addressing challenges at all levels of the economy, which runs until 2020.
China’s national climate change plan requires the country to cut its overall emissions of carbon dioxide and other carbon-based gases by around 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 to reach a 40 percent reduction by 2030.
Last year, the government set aside 5.3 billion yuan ($89.23 million) for the sector to help finance investment in carbon capture projects.
But this hasn’t brought much result so far, and it hasn’t been clear whether the $300-billion-a-year annual industry will yield any more gains. The industry was set up at a time when there seemed to be a huge demand by the Chinese government for additional emissions cuts after a slowdown in global steel prices.
Wu said the China’s climate targets are based on the idea that it should have more emissions than other developed economies, but it’s difficult to calculate.
“The emission intensity index does not take into consideration the difference in emissions between China and those other major emitters,” he said. “It also does not include the large difference between China’s coal consumption and the rest of the world. In this respect, the target is not realistic.”
Experts estimate that China could cut its carbon intensity by 20 percent relative to 2005 levels or more if the sector can ramp up.
A recent report from the World Resources Institute put China’s total carbon emissions at 482.1 million tons per year and says that the country’s coal imports are estimated to